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David Cameron y el Waterloo de la UE

PRINCETON – Hace doscientos años este mes, en la Batalla de Waterloo, la derrota de Napoleón Bonaparte a manos de un ejército aliado, liderado por el duque de Wellington, remodeló el futuro de Europa. Gran Bretaña ahora puede estar por hacer lo mismo otra vez.

El Reino Unido, cuyo nuevo gobierno conservador ha prometido llevar a cabo un referendo sobre la pertenencia a la Unión Europea a fines de 2017, quizás incluso el año próximo, no es un caso atípico como se lo suele retratar. De hecho, está en la vanguardia de la atrofia institucional de la UE. Aun si decidiera seguir siendo miembro de la UE, el Reino Unido seguirá alejándose ininterrumpidamente de Europa. Con oportunidades comerciales más atractivas en otras partes, la mayoría de los países europeos seguirán sus pasos.

Para la UE, cumplir con las exigencias del Reino Unido -restringir los beneficios para los trabajadores migrantes, limitar la regulación financiera que pudiera afectar a la City of London y rechazar el objetivo de "una unión cada vez más estrecha"- demandaría una transformación fundamental, y hasta cambios totalmente inviables a los tratados que sustentan a las instituciones europeas. La discusión, por ende, ha virado a la posibilidad de ofrecerle al Reino Unido un status especial o permitirle quedar afuera de más estipulaciones de la UE.

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