Barrie Maguire

欧洲究竟有多少次衰退?

坎布里奇——英国国家统计局6月下旬发布经过修正的GDP数据似乎令人振奋,因为经济增长并未如此前所想的那样在2011-12年冬天连续两个季度出现负增长。报告认为 2008年全球金融危机后英国经济避免了载入史册的二次衰退(也称为“双底”),因此保守党政府理应对此感到满意。但事实并非如此。

问题的关键不在于双底还是(还是三底),而在于经济是否一直没能走出危机。英国人其实非常清楚国内经济从2009年中触底后还没有收复危机造成的半数失地:GDP仍比危机前的峰值低将近4%。如果欧洲国家改用类似于美国的经济周期衡量标准,那么英国经济大萧条很可能根本没有结束。

如果采用美国标准,对爱尔兰2013年初 再次陷入衰退的报告也将有不同的解读。爱尔兰GDP从2009年后尚未收复2007年底峰顶及两年后谷底间一半的失地。如果按照美国的方法,爱尔兰根本没有摆脱最初那次危机。实际情况是,虽然小规模反弹一个接着一个,但最终都没有逃脱“二次探底”。

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