¿Oscuridad o amanecer en Bielorrusia?

WASHINGTON, DC – Mientras las protestas en favor de la democracia se extienden en el mundo árabe, en Bielorrusia, el reducto lúgubre cuasi-soviético de Europa, la situación ha empeorado desde que el presidente Aleksander Lukashenko reprimió violentamente las manifestaciones posteriores a las elecciones de diciembre y encarceló a siete de los nueve candidatos que participaron en su contra. No obstante, a medida que los gobiernos occidentales –y el gobierno de la Unión Europea en particular– respondan, deben considerar las brutales acciones de Lukashenko como una coyuntura decisiva: el momento en el que el régimen dejó de contar con el apoyo popular y se vio obligado a enfrentarse al fracaso de su modelo socioeconómico antediluviano.

El régimen de Lukashenko se ha apoyado en tres pilares : un contrato social que promete independencia nacional y un ingreso bajo garantizado a cambio del consentimiento tácito a un gobierno dictatorial; una maquinaria de propaganda que refuerza el valor y la necesidad de este acuerdo; y un enorme sistema de seguridad para aplicarlo.

Durante muchos años después de que Lukashenko fuera electo por primera vez en 1994 (ha gobernado sin interrupción desde entonces), la mayoría de los bielorrusos tal vez toleraron el régimen porque creían que los protegía de los peores excesos del capitalismo del “Este salvaje” de la vecina Rusia: privatización corrupta, pérdida de empleos y control de la mafia. Pero, a medida que ha pasado el tiempo y que más bielorrusos han viajado a Occidente, la fe en el liderazgo de Lukashenko se ha vuelto insostenible.

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