Janet Yellen IMF/Flickr

当代金融黑暗之王?

伦敦—在普利策奖获奖作品《金融之王》(Lords of Finance)中,经济学家利雅卡特·艾哈迈德(Liaquat Ahamad)讲述了四位央行行长因为坚持金本位而“打碎世界”、引发大萧条的故事。今天的央行行长基本上有了一套新的传统智慧——关于宽松货币政策的智慧。货币决策者会再一次打碎世界吗?

正统货币政策不再奉金本位为圭臬。金本位导致20世纪20年代各大央行利率管理失当,引起全球经济萧条并成为第二次世界大战的祸根。但自2008年金融危机爆发以来,我们经历了一段前所未有的合作货币宽松时期,它的问题也许不亚于金本位。事实上,它对金融市场的巨大影响早已清晰可辨。

一阶影响显而易见。机构投资者难以在任何传统安全投资中获得正实际收益率。比如,寿险公司为了兑现保证回报率而焦头烂额。据瑞士再保险公司(Swiss Re)的最新报告如果政府债券以接近于“公平价值”的价格交易,2008—2013年美国和欧洲保险公司可以赚得400—800亿美元(假设其50—60%的投资配置给固定收益证券,这也是典型的做法)。对公共退休基金来说,这段时间增加1%的收益率每年能新增收益400—500亿美元。

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