韩国的日本镜像

首尔—考虑到日本所面临的艰巨挑战,我们对日本首相安倍晋三结束日本二十年经济停滞的决心只能抱有敬仰之情。他的战略——由大规模货币扩张、政府增支和结构性改革组成的“三支箭”——在理论上是可行的。但到目前为止只射出了一支半。

刺激计划的效果因为旨在减少日本巨额债务负担的增加消费税计划而被抵消不少。增加消费税将令日本消费者减少消费支出。能源部门、劳动力市场和竞争政策方面的结构性改革似乎也无法立刻就起到效果。更令人担忧的是难以改变的现实——如快速老龄化且不断减少的人口,这些现实将成为未来几十年中日本经济增长的制约因素。

但日本的问题并不是独一无二的。事实上,它的近邻和历史上的对头韩国也处在相似的轨迹上。区别在于韩国可能仍有时间改善这些趋势并避免日本式的持久低增长和长期衰退的泥淖。

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