مرآة كوريا الجنوبية اليابانية

سول ــ في ضوء التحديات الكبرى التي تواجه اليابان فلا يملك المرء إلا أن يُعجَب بتصميم رئيس الوزراء الياباني على إنهاء الركود الاقتصادي الذي دام في البلاد طيلة عقدين من الزمان. والواقع أن استراتيجيته ــ "الأسهم الثلاثة" والتي تتألف من التوسع النقدي الكبير، وزيادة الإنفاق الحكومي، والإصلاح البنيوي ــ سليمة من الناحية النظرية. ولكن لم ينطلق حتى الآن سوى سهم واحد ونصف السهم.

ذلك أن حزمة التحفيز تقابلها زيادات ضريبة الاستهلاك التي تهدف إلى تقليص عبء الديون الضخمة المستحقة على اليابان ــ وهي العملية التي من شأنها أن تدفع العديد من المستهلكين اليابانيين إلى تعديل إنفاقهم نزولا. وحتى الآن لم يتم تقديم الإصلاحات البنيوية الموعودة في قطاع الطاقة، وسوق العمل، وسياسة المنافسة، ويبدو من غير المرجح أن يبدأ تنفيذها في أي وقت قريب. وهناك حقائق ثابتة أكثر إثارة للقلق ــ مثل الشيخوخة السكانية السريعة والانكماش السكاني ــ والتي من شأنها أن تحد من نمو الاقتصاد الياباني في العقود المقبلة.

ولكن مشاكل اليابان ليست فريدة من نوعها. فالواقع أن جارتها ومنافستها التاريخية كوريا الجنوبية تتجه نحو مسار مماثل. والفارق هو أن كوريا الجنوبية ربما لا تزال لديها بعض الوقت لتحسين هذه الاتجاهات وتجنب الانزلاق إلى مستنقع أشبه بالمستنقع الياباني من النمو المنخفض الدائم والانحدار الطويل الأجل.

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