El sistema sí funciona

MEDFORD, MASSACHUSETTS – Ahora que va a empezar la más reciente cumbre de ministros de Finanzas del G-20 en Cairns, Australia, los agoreros de la catástrofe vociferan de nuevo. Sus ideas preconcebidas es que “el sistema” –estructuras de gobernanza global como la Organización Mundial de Comercio y el G-20 o los principales bancos centrales– tiene serias fallas y hay que corregirlas con urgencia. De hecho, el orden económico mundial ha funcionado extraordinariamente bien desde 2008.

Es cierto que el primer año de la gran recesión fue más grave que el primer año de la Gran Depresión. Sin embargo, pese a la sacudida inicial, el sistema respondió de forma sorprendentemente bien. Si se le compara con recesiones mundiales previas desencadenadas por una crisis financiera, la economía global tuvo una recuperación sólida. Los niveles de comercio y producción excedieron los anteriores a la crisis en gran parte de los países hace algunos años, y la pobreza mundial continúa disminuyendo rápidamente.

Un factor clave de esta recuperación es que, a diferencia de los años treinta, la economía global mantuvo su funcionamiento corriente: las barreras comerciales permanecieron bajas al igual que las restricciones a la inversión extranjera directa y los intercambios fronterizos siguieron expandiéndose mediante Internet.

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