系统在运转

梅福德,马萨诸塞州—随着二十国集团财政部长会议在澳大利亚凯恩斯召开,忧郁军团(Legion of Gloom)再次齐聚。他们的传统智慧是,“系统”——从世界贸易组织和二十国集团到各主要中央银行的全球治理结构——遭到了严重破坏,急需修补。事实上,全球经济秩序在2008年以来运转的相当良好。

诚然,大衰退的第一年要比大萧条的第一年严重得多。但是,尽管第一波冲击十分猛烈,但系统的反应出人意料地敏捷。与前几次金融危机触发的全球衰退相比,此次全球经济反弹得相当强劲。大部分国家的贸易和产出水平几年前就已经超过危机前水平,全球贫困也在继续迅速减少。

如此反弹的一个关键是,与20世纪30年代相反,全球经济维持着现有环境:贸易壁垒和对外国直接投资的限制仍然很小,跨国贸易在互联网上继续扩张。

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