欧洲银行分裂

布鲁塞尔—欧元的目标是建立完全一体化的金融市场;但是,自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来,市场重新国家化了。因此,欧元区的未来极大地取决于是这一趋势继续持续下去还是欧洲金融市场完全一体化。但不管哪个结果都比处于中间状态不伦不类更好。不幸的是,中间状态正是欧元区正在迈进的方向。

重新国家化之势显而易见。自2008年信用繁荣结束以来,欧元区核心国(主要是德国及其较小的邻国)对欧元区外围国的跨国银行债权从1.6万亿欧元下降了一大半。(其中一部分转移到了欧洲央行资产负债表上,但这无法作为永久性解决方案。)

这一趋势可能会一直持续到跨国债权规模缩小到不再具有系统重要性为止——即欧元引入前的状态。以当前速度,不消几年就能达到这一水平。欧元带来的金融一体化将毁于一旦。

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