I Pericoli Del Consenso Economico

PRINCETON – L’ “Iniziativa sui Mercati Globali”, con sede presso l’Università di Chicago, compie periodicamente dei sondaggi su un gruppo comprendente i principali economisti accademici, di vario orientamento politico, riguardo a questioni di attualità. L’ultima inchiesta si chiedeva se il piano di incentivi del presidente Barack Obama abbia contribuito a ridurre la disoccupazione negli Stati Uniti.

Ufficialmente conosciuto come l’American Recovery and Reinvestment Act del 2009, il piano ha comportato una spesa pubblica di oltre 800 miliardi di dollari per infrastrutture, istruzione, sanità e energia, incentivi fiscali, e vari programmi sociali. Attuato nel bel mezzo di una crisi economica, ha costituito un esempio di classica risposta keynesiana.

Gli economisti erano praticamente unanimemente d’accordo. Trentasei dei 37 economisti che hanno risposto al sondaggio hanno detto che il piano aveva avuto successo nel suo obiettivo dichiarato di ridurre la disoccupazione. L’economista Justin Wolfers dell’Università del Michigan ha salutato con plauso il consenso nel suo blog del New York Times. L’esasperato dibattito pubblico sull’efficacia degli incentivi fiscali, egli lamentava, è diventato totalmente sconnesso da ciò che gli esperti conoscono e su cui concordano.

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