Demasiadas finanzas

PRINCETON – Qué rápido se dio vuelta la suerte de los mercados emergentes. No hace tanto, eran la salvación de la economía mundial: los dinámicos motores de crecimiento que mantendrían la economía andando cuando los de Estados Unidos y Europa comenzaran a fallar. Los economistas de Citigroup, McKinsey, PricewaterhouseCoopers y otras agencias predecían una era de amplio y sostenido crecimiento económico desde Asia hasta África.

Pero ahora los mercados emergentes están otra vez en la mala. La paliza que recibieron sus monedas cuando la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos comenzó a ajustar su política monetaria es sólo el principio; parece que hay problemas profundos dondequiera que uno mire.

Argentina y Venezuela agotaron su reserva de trucos heterodoxos. En Brasil y la India ya no sirven los modelos de crecimiento actuales. Turquía y Tailandia están sumidas en crisis políticas derivadas de viejos conflictos internos latentes. En África, crece la inquietud por la falta de cambios estructurales e industrialización. Y en cuanto a China, todos se preguntan si su desaceleración económica será un aterrizaje suave o de emergencia.

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