Finanza letale

PRINCETON – Come sono mutate rapidamente le sorti dei mercati emergenti. Non molto tempo fa essi erano visti come l'ancora di salvezza dell'economia mondiale, il motore di una crescita destinata ad affermarsi mentre gli Stati Uniti e l'Europa languivano. Gli economisti di Citigroup, McKinsey, PricewaterhouseCoopers, tra gli altri, avevano previsto un periodo di crescita globale e sostenuta che avrebbe dovuto interessare vari paesi, dall'Asia all'Africa.

Ora,  invece, l'entusiasmo ha ceduto il posto alla depressione. La batosta che le valute di questi paesi hanno ricevuto in concomitanza con la stretta della politica monetaria da parte della Federal Reserve è soltanto l'inizio; ovunque si guardi, sembrano esserci problemi profondi.

L'Argentina e il Venezuela hanno esaurito le possibilità della politica eterodossa seguita fin qui. Il Brasile e l'India sono alla disperata ricerca di nuovi modelli di crescita. La Turchia e la Thailandia si ritrovano impantanate in una crisi politica che riflette conflitti interni incubati da tempo. In Africa cresce la preoccupazione per la mancanza di cambiamenti strutturali e industrializzazione, mentre l'interrogativo principale che riguarda la Cina è se il rallentamento economico si tradurrà in un atterraggio morbido o duro.

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