Excès de finance

PRINCETON – Comme le sort des marchés émergents a tourné rapidement. Il n'y a pas longtemps, ceux-ci étaient présentés comme le salut de l'économie mondiale – les moteurs dynamiques de croissance qui devaient prendre la relève des économies des États-Unis et de l’Europe en difficulté. Les économistes de Citigroup, McKinsey, PricewaterhouseCoopers et d’autres institutions prédisaient une ère de croissance diffuse et durable, de l'Asie à l'Afrique.

Or, aujourd’hui, le blues des marchés émergents est de retour. Le mauvais coup que les devises de ces pays ont pris lorsque la Réserve fédérale américaine a commencé à resserrer la politique monétaire n'est que le début ; il semble que, partout où l’on regarde, il y ait des problèmes profonds.

L’Argentine et le Venezuela ont épuisé leur stock de ficelles de politique hétérodoxe. Le Brésil et l'Inde ont besoin de nouveaux modèles de croissance. La Turquie et la Thaïlande sont embourbées dans des crises politiques reflétant des conflits internes qui couvaient depuis longtemps. En Afrique, on s'inquiète de plus en plus de l'absence de changement structurel et d'industrialisation. Et la question principale concernant la Chine est de savoir si son ralentissement économique prendra la forme d'un atterrissage en douceur ou violent.

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