死于金融

普林斯顿—新兴市场的运势在迅速改变。不久前,它们还被称为世界经济的救世主——在美国和欧洲等经济体熄火时取而代之成为充满活力的增长引擎。花旗集团、麦肯锡公司、普华永道和其他机构的经济学家纷纷预言从亚洲到非洲都将迎来广泛而持续的增长时代。

但如今,人们对新兴市场再次陷入了一片悲观。美联储收紧货币政策的动作才刚刚开始,新兴市场货币便颓势尽露;放眼望去,人们看到的都是深层次的问题。

阿根廷和委内瑞拉的不同寻常政策路已经走到了尽头。巴西和印度需要新的增长模式。土耳其和泰国受制于反映长期发酵的国内冲突的政治危机。在非洲,人们开始担心结构性变革和工业化的不足。而中国面临的主要问题是其经济减速会带来软着陆还是硬着陆。

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