全球经济的真英雄

普林斯顿—如今,寻找可供模仿的成功模式的经济决策者有大把的选择。以中国的为首的诸多新兴和发展中国家在近几十年来频频创出高增长新纪录,为他人树立了可供追随的先例。尽管发达经济体表现远远不及平均水平,但也有显著的例外,比如德国和瑞典。“向我们这样做,”这些国家的领导人经常说,“你也能繁荣。”

但是,更仔细地考察一下你会发现,这些国家引以为傲的增长模式绝非放之四海而皆准,因为它们依赖巨额外部盈余刺激可贸易部门和经济的其他部分。在过去十年中,瑞典的经常项目盈余平均可达GDP的7%以上;同期的德国平均可达近6%。

中国的巨额外部盈余——2007年超过GDP的10%——在最近几年大幅收窄,贸易失衡程度已下降至GDP的约2.5%。随着盈余的减少,中国经济的增长率也随之下落——事实上,两者的下降几乎是一比一关系。平心而论,比较而言中国的年增长依然很高,超过7%。但这一水平的增长反映了前所未有——也不可持续——的国内投资增加,现已接近GDP的50%。当投资回到正常水平时,经济增长也会进一步减速。

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