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弱欧洲的危险

坎布里奇——1973年,美国国务卿亨利·基辛格在对越南和中国一段时间的全神贯注后,却宣布了“欧洲年”的决策。最近,在美国总统奥巴马宣布美国战略“支点”,或再平衡转向亚洲后,许多欧洲人担心为美国所忽略。现在,由于正在上演的难民危机、俄罗斯占领东乌克兰并非法吞并克里米亚、以及英国威胁退出欧盟,美国外交在2016年或许有必要再次做出“欧洲年”的决策。

无论喊什么口号,欧洲都仍具备相当的实力,并对美国的切身利益至关重要。尽管美国经济比德国大四倍,但由28个成员国组成的欧盟经济体量与美国对等,其5.1亿的人口规模则要比美国的3.2亿多得多。

诚然,美国的人均收入较高,但就人力资本、技术和出口领域而言,欧盟完全当得起美国的经济对手。2010年危机爆发(即希腊和其他国家的财政问题引发金融市场焦虑)前,有些经济学家纷纷猜测欧元很可能迅速取代美元而成为世界主要储备货币。

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