Come arginare i capitali

NEW YORK – Le attività di vigilanza sui conti capitale sono da due anni al centro dei dibattiti finanziari di tutto il mondo. Le ragioni sono ovvie: da quando il mondo sta attraversando una “ripresa a più velocità”, come sostiene il Fondo monetario internazionale, i paesi avanzati con una crescita lenta stanno mantenendo tassi di interesse molto bassi e stanno attuando politiche monetarie espansionistiche, mentre le economie emergenti, che stanno crescendo rapidamente, stanno smantellando le politiche espansionistiche adottate durante la recessione. Tale asimmetria ha innescato un massiccio spostamento di capitali dai paesi avanzati a quelli emergenti. E tale situazione è destinata a perdurare.

Le economie emergenti temono che questa ondata di capitale possa spingere al rialzo i tassi di interesse delle loro valute, oltre ad alimentare i deficit di conto corrente e le bolle finanziarie, che, in base all’esperienza passata, potrebbero sfociare in crisi future. Il problema principale è che tra i paesi interessati ad intraprendere politiche espansionistiche rientrino anche gli Stati Uniti, che contano il maggiore settore finanziario del mondo ed emettono la principale moneta di riserva globale.

Non sorprende, quindi, che diverse economie emergenti stiano utilizzando i controlli sui capitali per cercare di gestire l’ondata. Ciò, ovviamente, è in contraddizione con il buonsenso tanto predicato in passato dal Fmi e da altre autorità, secondo cui le economie emergenti dovrebbero svincolare i propri conti capitale nell’ambito di un processo più ampio di liberalizzazione finanziaria.

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