Paul Lachine

La perpetuación de la crisis europea

ATENAS – El acuerdo para el rescate de Chipre marca una divisoria en el desarrollo de la crisis de la eurozona: la responsabilidad de resolver los problemas de los bancos se transfirió de los contribuyentes a los inversores privados y a los depositantes. Pero las cuantiosas pérdidas que sufrirán los titulares de cuentas en bancos chipriotas atentan contra las garantías de depósito que forman parte de la propuesta de unión bancaria para Europa; al mismo tiempo, los controles al movimiento de capitales debilitarán aun más los cimientos de la unión monetaria. Parece que Europa está dando vueltas como un perro detrás de su cola.

Con estas medidas, Alemania y los otros países del núcleo de la eurozona envían señales de que una mutualización de deudas dentro de la unión monetaria está descartada y de que el costo de los acuerdos de rescate de países o instituciones financieras será compartido con los acreedores. Pero el aumento de la incertidumbre sobre la seguridad de los depósitos provocará un alza de los tipos de interés y profundizará la recesión europea; también puede ocurrir que estimule la salida de capitales desde las economías periféricas más débiles hacia los países centrales.

Estos cambios pueden tener consecuencias de largo alcance. El modelo alemán para la solución de la crisis de deuda y la recuperación del equilibrio interno y externo depende de la consolidación fiscal y de la implementación de reformas estructurales en los países deficitarios. Pero si todos los países recortan el gasto y aumentan los impuestos al mismo tiempo, en un intento de mejorar su situación fiscal o externa, ninguno lo conseguirá, porque las medidas de austeridad en un país cualquiera suponen menos demanda para la producción en los otros países, con lo que los desequilibrios internos y externos se perpetúan. Y la transferencia de costos a los acreedores agravará estas tendencias.

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