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Ist Abschreckung vor einem Cyber-Krieg möglich?

CAMBRIDGE – Ängste vor einem „virtuellen Pearl Harbor“ kamen erstmals in den 1990er Jahren auf, und seit nunmehr zwei Jahrzehnten sorgt sich die Politik, das Hacker Erdölleitungen in die Luft sprengen, das Trinkwasser vergiften, Schleusentore öffnen und Flugzeuge durch Manipulation der Flugsicherungssysteme auf Kollisionskurs bringen könnten. Im Jahr 2012 warnte der damalige US-Verteidigungsminister Leon Panetta, dass Hacker „in weiten Teilen des Landes das Stromnetz abschalten“ könnten.

Keines dieser Katastrophenszenarien ist bisher eingetreten, aber sie lassen sich sicherlich nicht ausschließen. Auf bescheidenerem Niveau haben es Hacker im vergangenen Jahr geschafft, in einem deutschen Stahlwerk einen Hochofen zu zerstören. Es stellt sich daher die einfache Sicherheitsfrage: Lassen sich derartige zerstörerische Aktionen durch Abschreckung vermeiden?

Es wird manchmal behauptet, dass Abschreckung im virtuellen Raum wegen der Schwierigkeit der Zuordnung der Angriffsquelle und der großen Anzahl der verschiedenen beteiligten staatlichen und nichtstaatlichen Akteure keine effektive Strategie sei. Man weiß häufig nicht genau, wessen Anlagen man bedrohen kann und wie lange.

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