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网络战能否被遏制?

坎布里奇——对“网络珍珠港”的担忧最早出现在20世纪90年代,过去20年来,决策者一直担心黑客会炸毁油管、污染水源、开启泄洪闸和袭击空中交通控制系统制造撞机事件。2012年,时任美国国防部长帕内塔警告说黑客有能力“关闭美国大部分地区的电网”。

这样的灾难性情景暂时尚未发生,但其可能性显然不能排除。在相对温和的水平上,黑客去年毁坏了一座德国钢厂的高炉。因此安全问题再简单不过:我们能否遏制这样的破坏行动?

有人说遏制在网络世界并非有效策略,因为难以确定袭击的来源和其中所涉及的大量国家及非国家参与者。我们往往无法确定能用谁的资产冒险以及冒险的时间长度。

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