Guerra e Paz cibernética

CAMBRIDGE - Há dois anos, um vírus informático sabotou o programa nuclear iraniano e destruiu muitas das centrifugadoras utilizadas para enriquecer o urânio. Alguns observadores declararam esta aparente sabotagem como sendo o prenúncio de uma nova forma de guerra e o secretário da Defesa dos Estados Unidos, Leon Panetta, alertou os norte-americanos para o perigo de um ataque “Pearl Harbor cibernético” contra os EUA. Mas o que é que nós realmente sabemos sobre conflito cibernético?

O domínio cibernético dos computadores, e das actividades relacionadas com a electrónica, é um ambiente complexo construído pelo homem e os adversários humanos são determinados e inteligentes. As montanhas e os oceanos são difíceis de mover, mas partes do ciberespaço podem ser ligadas e desligadas através do clique de um interruptor. É muito mais barato e muito mais rápido mover electrões, em todo o mundo, do que mover os grandes navios que percorrem longas distâncias.

Os custos para desenvolver estes navios – forças anfíbias com capacidades múltiplas e frotas de submarinos - criam enormes barreiras à entrada, permitindo o domínio naval norte-americano. Mas as barreiras para entrar no domínio cibernético são tão baixas que os intervenientes não-estatais e os pequenos estados podem desempenhar um papel significativo a baixo custo.

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