Cyberkrieg und -frieden

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Vor zwei Jahren wurden das iranische Nuklearprogramm durch fehlerhaften Computercode infiziert und viele der zur Urananreicherung verwendeten Zentrifugen zerstört. Einige Beobachter erklärten diese scheinbare Sabotage zum Vorboten einer neuen Form der Kriegsführung, und US-Verteidigungsminister Leon Panetta warnte die Amerikaner vor der Gefahr eines Pearl-Harbor-artigen Cyberangriffs auf die USA. Aber was wissen wir wirklich über Cyberkonflikte?

Der Cyberbereich der Computer und verbundenen elektronischen Aktivitäten ist ein komplexes, von Menschen geschaffenes Umfeld, und menschliche Feinde sind zielbewusst und intelligent. Berge und Ozeane sind schwer zu versetzen, aber Teile des Cyberspace lassen sich an- und ausschalten, einfach indem man einen Schalter umlegt. Es ist viel billiger und schneller, Elektronen um den Globus zu schicken, als große Schiffe über lange Entfernungen zu bewegen.

Die Kosten der Entwicklung derartiger Schiffe – mehrerer Flugzeugträgerverbände und U-Boot-Flotten – erzeugen enorme Eintrittsbarrieren, die die Vorherrschaft der USA auf den Meeren ermöglichen. Doch die Eintrittsbarrieren zum Cyberbereich sind so niedrig, dass nichtstaatliche Akteure und Kleinstaaten dort für wenig Geld eine wichtige Rolle spielen können.

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