货币操纵传说

东京—本月,日元兑美元汇率跌至125以下,创出13年来新低,随后,日本银行行长黑田东彦表示预计日元不会继续贬值,日元也随之反弹至122附近。但是,黑田随后澄清,日本货币决策者不会预测,更不会控制汇率波动。相反,日本银行的目标——与任何高效央行一样——是确保合理的就业和通胀组合。

当然,一国货币政策确实会在短期影响汇率。但只有在与其他相关国家的货币政策有关时才会有这一效果。对于今天的日本来说,汇率与其说由本国货币扩张决定,不如说由美国转向货币紧缩决定。此前,美联储的大规模量化宽松给日元造成了升值压力。

一国也可以通过直接干预外汇市场影响短期汇率。但这类干预十分复杂——不仅是因为它们必须考虑该国货币政策方针与相关国家货币政策方针之间的关系。此外,如果(比如)美国的目标是1美元兑100日元,而日本的目标是120日元,那么结果不但可能包括美国和日本之间出现紧张;不相容的汇率目标还有可能引发更广的市场波动,波及其他经济体。

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