Coins

El regreso de la caída de las monedas

CAMBRIDGE – La volatilidad en el mercado de divisas ha estado presente durante décadas, incluso podría decirse durante siglos. Las amplias fluctuaciones en los tipos de cambio se convirtieron en un elemento fundamental de los mercados financieros internacionales después de que el sistema de Bretton Woods se derrumbara a principios de 1970, y se hicieran comunes las mega-depreciaciones posteriormente en la misma década y gran parte de la de 1980, década en la que la inflación asoló a gran parte del mundo. Incluso a lo largo de gran parte de la década de 1990 y principios de la de 2000, entre 10 a 20% de los países de todo el mundo experimentaron una gran depreciación de su moneda o una caída en un año determinado.

Y luego, de repente, la calma prevaleció. Exceptuando el caos asociado con la crisis financiera mundial de finales del año 2008 y principios de 2009, las caídas de las monedas fueron pocas y distantes durante el período 2004 hasta 2014 (vea la figura). Pero los acontecimientos recientes sugieren que la escasez de caídas de las monedas durante esa década puede llegar a ser recordada como la excepción que confirma la regla.

La casi desaparición de las caídas de las monedas en el período 2004-2014 refleja en gran medida tasas de interés internacionales bajas y estables, así como los grandes flujos de capital hacia los mercados emergentes, junto con un auge de los precios de las materias primas y (sobre todo) tasas de crecimiento saludables en los países que escaparon a la crisis financiera mundial. En los hechos, la principal preocupación de muchos países durante dichos años fue evitar la apreciación cambiaria sostenida frente al dólar y frente a las monedas de otros socios comerciales.

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