O regresso do colapso financeiro

CAMBRIDGE – a volatilidade do mercado financeiro existe há décadas, se não há séculos. As variadas rotações nas taxas de câmbio tornaram-se num produto principal dos mercados financeiros internacionais depois de o sistema Bretton Woods ter quebrado no início da década de 1970, e as megadesvalorizações eram comuns no final da década e por boa parte da década de 1980, quando a inflação assolou grande parte do mundo. Mesmo durante a maior parte da década de 1990 e início da década de 2000, 10 a 20% dos países existentes vivenciaram uma grande desvalorização da moeda ou colapso financeiro num determinado ano.

E então, de repente, a calma prevaleceu. Excluindo o caos associado à crise financeira mundial que ocorreu no final de 2008 e início de 2009, os colapsos financeiros foram poucos e distantes no período entre 2004 e 2014 (ver figura). Mas desenvolvimentos recentes sugerem que a escassez de colapsos financeiros durante essa década pode ser lembrada como a exceção que confirma a regra.

O quase desaparecimento dos colapsos financeiros entre 2004 e 2014 refletem largamente as taxas de juros internacionais baixas e estáveis e os grandes fluxos de capital para os mercados emergentes, juntamente com um boom nos preços das matérias-primas e (principalmente) as fortes taxas de crescimento nos países que escaparam à crise financeira mundial. Com efeito, a principal preocupação de muitos países durante esses anos foi evitar a valorização sustentada da moeda em relação ao dólar americano e às moedas de outros parceiros comerciais.

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