Il Ritorno dei Crolli di Valuta

CAMBRIDGE – La volatilità del mercato della valuta è presente da decenni, se non da secoli. Le ampie oscillazioni dei tassi di cambio sono diventate un punto fermo dei mercati finanziari internazionali dopo la crisi del sistema di Bretton Woods nei primi anni settanta, e le mega svalutazioni sono state prassi corrente nel decennio successivo e per gran parte degli anni ottanta, quando l’inflazione ha imperversato in gran parte del mondo. Anche per la maggior parte degli anni novanta e i primi anni duemila, il 10-20% dei paesi del mondo ha registrato ogni anno una grande svalutazione o caduta della moneta.

E poi, all’improvviso, la calma ha prevalso. Escludendo il caos collegato alla crisi finanziaria globale della fine del 2008 ed inizio del 2009, i crolli di valuta sono stati pochissimi tra il 2004 ed il 2014 (vedi figura). Ma i recenti sviluppi suggeriscono che la scarsità dei tracolli valutari durante quel decennio può essere ricordata come l’eccezione che conferma la regola.

La quasi scomparsa di forti svalutazioni di valuta nel periodo 2004-2014 riflette in gran parte tassi d’interesse internazionali bassi e stabili, e grandi flussi di capitale verso i mercati emergenti, insieme ad un boom dei prezzi delle materie prime e (soprattutto) tassi di crescita vigorosi nei paesi che erano sfuggiti alla crisi finanziaria globale. In effetti, la preoccupazione principale di molti paesi in quegli anni era di evitare il costante apprezzamento della valuta nei confronti del dollaro e delle monete degli altri partner commerciali.

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