Coins

货币崩溃归来

坎布里奇—货币市场波动已经存在了几十年甚至几百年。20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,汇率大起伏成为国际金融市场的标签,在随后的十年以及20世纪80年代大部分时期,剧烈贬值成为家常便饭,而通胀在全世界肆虐。即使在20世纪90年代和21世纪的第一个十年的大部分时间里,每年都有10—20%的国家经历过货币大幅贬值或崩溃。

接着,突然之间平静下来。除了与2009年底、2009年初的全球金融危机的大乱象,从2004年到2014年期间,货币崩溃非常罕见(见图)。但最近的发展趋势表明,这个十年中鲜见货币崩溃的现象有可能只是例外,而不是规则。

2004—2014年期间货币崩溃基本消失主要是因为稳定的低利率和大量资本流向新兴市场,同时大宗商品价格繁荣,(大部分)摆脱全球金融危机的国家增长率十分健康。事实上,许多国家在这一时期的主要担忧是避免货币持续兑美元和其他贸易伙伴货币升值。

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