russian economy Bloomberg/Getty Images

Las perspectivas sombrías de Rusia

MOSCÚ – Las perspectivas económicas de Rusia se ven cada vez más lúgubres. El año pasado, el derrumbe de los precios de la energía y las sanciones internacionales contribuyeron a una caída del 3,7% del PIB. Los salarios reales en el país se desmoronaron aproximadamente el 10%. Este año, se espera que esta tendencia negativa continúe. En 2016, está programado que el gasto público en educación y atención médica caiga el 18%.

Los intentos fortuitos del Kremlin de diversificar la economía rusa han fracasado en su gran mayoría. La productividad laboral se mantiene crónicamente baja y la inversión –extranjera y doméstica- se ha agotado. Desafortunadamente, es poco probable que se produzca un giro radical. En las condiciones actuales, es improbable que precios más altos de la energía o el levantamiento de las sanciones vayan a ser suficientes para revitalizar la economía moribunda del país.

En los últimos diez años, el régimen del presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, ha degradado a las instituciones que son esenciales para el funcionamiento de una economía moderna. El sistema judicial, por ejemplo, está básicamente en ruinas. Y, por sobre todas las cosas, la titularidad y gobernancia de activos y recursos clave están, casi en su totalidad, en manos del estado. De hecho, en 2012, el FMI calculó que el sector público consolidado representaba casi el 70% del PIB de Rusia. Si bien no hay estimaciones detalladas comparables para años anteriores, a comienzos de los años 2000, este porcentaje rondaba el 30-40%.

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