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即将到来的中国一党体制危机

克莱蒙特—10月1日,为纪念中华人民共和国成立70周年,中国国家主席习近平,将发表一番毫无保留地庆贺1949年以来中共执政记录的讲话。但是,尽管习近平显然充满了信心和乐观,但中共基层却在日益担心体制的未来前景——理应如此。

2012年,习近平开始执掌中共,他承诺党要在两个即将到来的一百年之前实现伟大成就——即1921年中共成立及人民共和国成立。但持续的经济减速和与美国的日益紧张让中国的2021年庆典蒙上了一层阴影。而一党体制可能无法维持到2049。

从技术上来说,中共的独裁并没有时间限制,但它已经接近一党体制的生存时间记录的前沿。墨西哥制度革命党(Institutional Revolutionary Party)掌权71年(1929—2000),苏共掌权74年(1917—1991),台湾国民党掌权73年(1927—1949年在大陆,1949—2000年在台湾)。斯大林主义家天下的朝鲜体制已经统治了71年,是中国仅有的现存竞争对手。

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