Refugee maritime debris on Mediterranean shore.

The Fire Forging Europe

Sep 28, 2015 Carl Bildt

European leaders have bitterly disagreed on the best way to handle the large numbers of refugees crossing the Mediterranean, once again sparking talk of crisis in the EU. And yet in today's disagreements could lie the roots of a stronger union.

STOCKHOLM – In 2003, when the European Union drafted its first security strategy, the continent’s citizens lived in a seemingly safe world. Indeed, the document’s opening sentence confidently proclaimed that “Europe has never been so prosperous, so secure nor so free.” The EU’s foreign policy in its immediate neighborhood was focused on creating “a ring of friends,” from Morocco to Russia and the Black Sea.

Today, the outlook could not be more different. The continent’s leaders are struggling to respond to a world that, in the words of a recent policy document, “has become more dangerous, divided, and disorienting.” The EU finds itself surrounded by a ring of fire, not of friends, with hundreds of thousands of people crossing its borders to escape the inferno.

In the east, Russia’s intervention in Ukraine has driven some two million people from their homes – more than were displaced by the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina two decades ago. Meanwhile, the horrific violence in Syria and disorder in North Africa have resulted in a sharp rise in the number of refugees, sparking talk of yet another crisis in the EU.

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Carl Bildt

Writing for PS since 2009
94 Commentaries

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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M M Oct 2, 2015

This article confirms that the politicians in the EU are disconnected from the people, big times…
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 28, 2015

Carl Bildt believes the current refugee crisis has strengthened the European Union rather than weakened it. He maintains people "are indeed waking up to a world that is more dangerous, divided, and disorienting. But it is an awakening that is more likely to bring them together than to drive them apart."
Looking back to 2003, a EU security document revealed that "the continent’s citizens lived in a seemingly safe world". It instilled confidence that Europe had "never been so prosperous, so secure nor so free.” Indeed, it explains why the 2008 financial crisis left so many Europeans stranded, as they were not prepared for enduring grievances.
Today Bildt says the continent is being plagued by one crisis after the other, prompting EU leaders to jump out of the frying pan into the fire. While the conflict in Ukraine "has driven some two million people from the homes", they have not fled to Western Europe. Yet wars and turmoil have triggered an influx of refugees to cross the Mediterranean, escaping the "horrific violence in Syria" and poverty in North Africa.
Bildt claims the media has misinformed the public. The influx of refugees can hardly be seen as "a tidal wave", but "little more than a trickle." He says most of "those who have fled the carnage in Syria live in camps in Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey," posing a huge burden on these countries and overstretching their resources.
In this respect he estimates the EU can "accommodate a million or more refugees, which would amount to just 0.2% of the EU’s total population." Bildt, like Merkel, sees the refugee crisis as an opportunity for many member states "to replenish their aging workforces." Indeed, he realises that it's easier said than done. In his home country, Sweden, the rising number of refugees seeking asylum has fueled xenophobia and abeted the rise of nationalists, the Sweden Democrats. There is a housing shortage and an unemployment rate at 8.5 percent. Many Swedes say, this is likely to get worse as a result of the influx of refugees.
In the past European politicians spoke of the north/south divide, like the one in the Greek bailout crisis. The refugee crisis has revealed a new rift - the east/west divide. Countries in eastern Europe, which had joined the EU a decade ago, oppose to sharing Germany's and Sweden's burden and resist to refugee quotas imposed by Brussels, even though the decision "was settled by majority vote."
Bildt is optimistic that the EU can weather the storm again and emerge stronger, when "everybody agrees that the challenges posed by the new world disorder are best faced together." He says opinion polls have shown that "the European project" is no longer "some utopian endevor," but "an abstract attempt to forge an ever-closer union".
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jagjeet sinha Sep 28, 2015

The opinions of Europeans of the pedigree of Carl Bildt is the reason for hope that Europe's Union will retain a touch of class.
Extremely positive points made in this submission.
The Anglosphere emerged stronger with every test by fire.
No reason why The Euorpean Union also will not do the same, so long the voice of Carl Bildt is heard loud and clear.
The refugee crisis is not its litmus test.
The capacity to create a regime of Investment Equalization that make the strengths of Europe available where it is needed most.
The internal migration forces must see light at the end of the tunnel - and the order of magnitude several times that of the refugees.
Carl Bildt means well, is well equipped, and is a blessing Europe needs everyday.
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Max Isert Sep 28, 2015

I like, that you are trying to strike a positive note here, Mr. Bildt.

I personally see a big difference between Ukrainian/Christian and Syrian/Muslim refugees. I would be more than happy to give shelter and assistance to Ukrainian refugees, but I am very worried about the long term consequences of allowing immigrants and refugees from the Islamic World into European societies.
Full and successful integration of these persons and this culture, in my opinion and experience, is an illusion and a waste of time, energy and resources. I talk from personal experience, as I grew up in the cultural melting-pot of the Rhein-Ruhr area, which has many immigrants. Poles, Turks, Kurds, et al, and it is mostly the Turks and other Muslim persons, who do not integrate well into our Western societies. And the Turks are considered the most civilized and advanced inhabitants of the Islamic World. Immigrants from the Arabic World, etc. are a totally different dimension when it comes to potentially integrating them into European societies.

Eastern European Christians seems to integrate more easily and willingly, and do not become a drain on the welfare systems.
If we do not practice cultural realism, when it comes to immigration and the refugee crisis, this will have a very destructive and alienating effect on the relationship of average traditional European citizens to the European Union, and could lead to its break-up.
I was also always a true believer in the European Project, but even I start to have my doubts. The European Union needs to stay a European project, and not become a Islamic-European project.
Turkey should never become a part of the EU. Ukraine, I am open to it, but we need to stay European, to maintain our integrity and efficiency.
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John Brian Shannon Sep 28, 2015

Hi Carl,

I agree with your conclusions that citizen confidence in the EU is increasing and skepticism about the EU project is diminishing.

Patterns in EU governance that are beginning to look familiar -- "a new crisis, a new meeting in Brussels, an initially muddled response, debates and divisions, and then gradual, step-by-step progress toward a common response...

[...]

...Increasingly, the EU is coming to be seen as a practical – and absolutely essential – mechanism for a group of small countries to work together to meet their common challenges." -- Carl Bildt

However, let us not forget that it was U.S. foreign policy (with EU backing) for the Iraq War, the Afghan War, and the failed Arab Spring, that took us from 2003's;

"“Europe has never been so prosperous, so secure nor so free.” The EU’s foreign policy in its immediate neighborhood was focused on creating “a ring of friends,” from Morocco to Russia and the Black Sea." -- Carl Bildt

to 2015's;

"Today, the outlook could not be more different. The continent’s leaders are struggling to respond to a world that, in the words of a recent policy document, “has become more dangerous, divided, and disorienting.” The EU finds itself surrounded by a ring of fire, not of friends, with hundreds of thousands of people crossing its borders to escape the inferno." -- Carl Bildt

Yet, those things did not happen by chance nor accident *they occurred as a direct result of Western policies* from 2001-onwards.

Although I'm a very strong supporter of the European project in the postwar era, and of the EU (and EZ) we must always be honest with ourselves in either success or failure.

With regards to the present Syria moment / refugee crisis -- we the West, are the authors of our own misfortune in that -- and the misfortune of millions of MENA citizens.

YES! Certainly governance in Europe is maturing with some leaders working near miracles (Germany, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Liechtenstein, etc) while others are building fences to keep refugees out.

And yes, many other things European are improving almost by the month, but there is still plenty of room for improvement.

Thank you for publicly posting your thoughts at ProSyn, Carl.

As always, very best regards, JBS
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