Politics

تفكك أوروبا

Oct 19, 2015 Philippe Legrain

لندن ــ إذا كنا في احتياج إلى أي إشارة واضحة إلى أن الاتحاد الأوروبي يتهاوى بمعدل ينذر بالخطر، فسوف نجدها في إقامة المجر لأسوار من الأسلاك الشائكة على طول الحدود مع جارتها في الاتحاد الأوروبي كرواتيا. لقد تسببت الأزمة في منطقة اليورو في تفتيت التدفقات المالية بطبيعة الحال، الأمر الذي أدى إلى تباعد الاقتصادات، وتآكل الدعم السياسي لمؤسسات الاتحاد الأوروبي، وتأليب الأوروبيين على بعضهم البعض. والآن، مع إقامة الحكومات للحواجز وإعادة فرض الضوابط على الحدود، تعمل أزمة اللاجئين على تعطيل تدفق البشر وتشويش التجارة. ومع تفكك الاتحاد الأوروبي، يتزايد خطر تصويت البريطانيين على الخروج ارتفاعا.

كثيراً ما يُقال إن الاتحاد الأوروبي يتقدم من خلال الأزمات، لأنها تساعد في تركيز العقول على الحاجة الملحة إلى المزيد من التكامل. ولكن مثل هذه الاختراقات تتطلب توفر أربعة مكونات على الأقل: الفهم الصحيح المشترك للمشكلة، والاتفاق على وسيلة فعّالة للمضي قدماً إلى الأمام، والاستعداد لتجميع المزيد من السيادة، والزعماء السياسيين القادرين على دفع عجلة التغيير إلى الأمام. والآن يفتقر الاتحاد الأوروبي إلى المكونات الأربعة.

الواقع أن الزعماء الأوروبيين ضعفاء ومنقسمين، وغير قادرين كما يبدو على وضع رؤية ذات مصداقية للفوائد التي قد يوفرها التكامل الأوروبي في المستقبل، والتي من دونها لا يستطيعون حشد الدعم الشعبي وإقناع الحكومات المترددة بتحمل نصيبها العادل من التكاليف الحالية. وفي غياب استجابة فعّالة ومشتركة، تتفاقم أزمات أوروبا، وتتغذى على بعضها البعض، وتحرض على النزعة الأحادية.

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Dominique Moisi praises Chancellor Angela Merkel's political leadership in the refugee crisis.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 24 Comments on this article

Diana Di Crescenzo Oct 27, 2015

The massive influx of Syrian refugees has been affecting Turkey, Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, Macedona and Serbia. Therefore, the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, proceeding along the Eastern Europe (hinterland). More openness from Slovenia (bordering Trieste - east of Italy) instead of Hungary and Germany. At least until now.
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Cam Jennings Oct 26, 2015

States joined regionally as a block is so old school thinking. One world no borders one government and welcome to our future. We cling to the past surviving the moment frightened of tomorrow.
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simon noble Oct 25, 2015

Shallow but unwittingly revealing analysis.
Legrain ignores almost entirely the will of the voters. For him this is all about leaders and Brussels. Burden sharing in 2010 might have looked good on paper but it has zero popular support. Refugees may only be 0.14& of the population but there are 5MM unemployed in Spain alone, many of then=m the same area as the single male refugees arriving in droves. Suddenly the EU should have the resources and will to spend more per head on refugees than it has been willing to spend on its own youth? Refugees are economically a good thing but the unemployed are not?
A graying continent still has huge amounts of untapped labour between unemployment and low participation rates, not to mention the ability and often desire of people to work longer. Germany is selfish with its surpluses but those surpluses originated actually in part because of the ned to plan for varying with more savings.
Incredibly in the same breath he praises Merkel for her role in the refugee crisis while recognizing that she unilaterally suspended the EU rules and invited the refugees, thereby causing the woes that he laments. Again in all of this popular will or consent is absent. Legrain disinterested in intellectually appealing concepts, not the dirty reality of life for most people.
The EU has spent its history avoiding popular consent, hiding behind councils of ministers, summits and a deeply flawed central parliament that exacerbates rather than solves the lack of accountability. Legrain belongs to this tradition.
One finally though. He laments the likely semi-detached position of the UK but never asks whether that might in fact be a model for the EU once you strip away the bureaucratic obsession with ever closer union.
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Marinus Huizer Oct 25, 2015

Apart from the fact that there is nothing wrong with a more germanic europe, or a europe without britain (but then completely outside, no trade favors), this authors seems to confuse a value system with pragmatic politics. and the only politics with having are pragmatic.

As to a germanic europe, the current geminates are far more competent and experienced than the lot that lost two world wars that they never should have gotten themselves into. If i were a frenchman, i would beg to have my country integrated into germany, rather than into Houellebecq's nightmare..
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Diego Orlandi Oct 20, 2015

To put it quite bluntly, from my point of view (and I think few south europeans could argue with me) before the Euro we were better off!! I think a Grexit, a Brexit and a whole bunch of other exits could occur hopefully with the final goal of balancing out the human mobility factor with the financial mobility factor in European legislation, in peace.
- Diego Orlandi Oct 20, 2015
  
  "austerity should be based on pure economics"? how did I demostrate that? I believe that the pure economics are the problem. austerity, like solidarity, is notbeing applied but it is being enforced, in my perspective, and there does not seem to be the political base of concensus. I beg to differ.
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- M M Oct 20, 2015
  
  I am not a South European and I agree... Austerity cannot be selective, applied whenever it suits a particular political party or to raise the profile of a failed political leader. Austerity should be based on pure economics, as you quite rightly demonstrated it.
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- Diego Orlandi Oct 20, 2015
  
  an example of evening out the human and financial factors of this union could be applying Credit-rating indexes as a useful+objective+democratic tool to indicate capacity for refugee asylum in EU! Otherwise we have better off countries being a bit too austere with solidarity!! :)
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A C Oct 20, 2015

The problem is not when the small countries break the rules but when the big countries break the rules for their own advantage! Germany has caused irreversible damage to the European project!
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Celt Darnell Oct 19, 2015

The limits of European political integration were reached when France and the Netherlands (please note, not the UK) voted against the proposed European constitution in national referenda.

At that point, anyone respecting the basic principles of democracy and the significance of national identity would have, at the very least, called for a pause.

Instead the rejected constitution was rammed through in the guise of the Lisbon Treaty and the French and Dutch were simply denied a vote (and the British who had been promised a vote were similarly denied).

And you wonder why there's no "solidarity" or sense of being "European" and why the British electorate wants out of the EU altogether?

Try respecting the will of the people next time.
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jagjeet sinha Oct 19, 2015

"Slovakia built for Slovaks, not Minorities"
Slovenia built for Slovenes, not Minorities.
Croatia built for Croats, not Minorities.
This was what reality in Yugoslavia was - all who remember surely cannot believe it was anything else.
Why the Architects of European Union are amazed when this reality keeps cropping - is the real wonder.
In fact, it is the greatest opportunity to construct the Union - all parts of a Greater Whole.
The leadership is shaped by The Union's Capitals - The Headquarters.

Yes, Great Britain joined only The EEC in 1973 - after their referendum, and even today it would vote overwhelmingly if it is EEC.
But, Democracy and Majority in Europe triumphed - EEC morphed into EU, EU morphed into EZ.
And, Great Britain alone cannot reclaim that it is the EEC still.
Hence the referendum - it is a fundamental premise, where public opinion matters.

Should it decide to exit the EUROPE now on offer, it is perhaps because of what Real Europe has turned out to be.
There is NO EUROPEAN - everybody is Slovak or Slovene or Croat.
And if Europe wishes to pursue this path - it is Europe's choice.
Britain will not leave the EEC - but that is not on offer.

2017 is when that decision will be made - it will not be Britain's first exit.
The last time Brexit happened nearly 400 years ago, they ended up building The Anglosphere.
This time, perhaps Europe's turn to join The Anglosphere - who knows !
Unless German Russian Arabic take them to the finishing line first !!
Or, French finally forever ......
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Hergen Heinemann Oct 19, 2015

Mr. Legrain seems to find some fault in the in the idea that debts should be repeid: [Germans insist that debtors have a moral obligation to pay what they owe and atone for their sinful profligacy
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crises-drive-europe-disintegration-by-philippe-legrain-2015-10#QwsSw7oh74Q0Au4U.99].
Moreover he is unwilling to see that some mediterranean countries have lived beyond their means and feel to have a Moral right to demand from other countries that These finance part of their living:[View/Create comment on this paragraphGermany refuses to accept that its beggar-thy-neighbor economic policies – reflected in its massive current-account surpluses – are both a cause of the eurozone crisis and a major impediment to resolving it. Instead, it bullies others to get its way, wrongly identifying its narrow interests as a creditor with those of the system as a whole.
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crises-drive-europe-disintegration-by-philippe-legrain-2015-10#k2dbZWmXAO2lhXlQ.99].
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Ariel Tejera Oct 19, 2015

From the German side: Well, what to worry about? Time is on their side. Keeping most of the other EU countries out of balance is ... good.
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Ariel Tejera Oct 19, 2015

English insularity is turning funny: running from Germany, reaching to Saudi Arabia and China, and walked around by the US.
- Celt Darnell Oct 19, 2015
  
  @ Ariel Tejera
  "English insularity" translation: recognizing there's more to the world than Europe
  "running from Germany" translation: declining to join them in a political union on their terms
  "reaching to Saudi Arabia and China" translation: trading peacefully with them
  'walked around by the US" not sure what this means, given we've declined to join them in their adventures in Syria or the Ukraine. But then you're not talking a great deal of sense in the first place.
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M M Oct 19, 2015

Erdogan has raised the stakes lately, subject to the outcome of the upcoming Turkish elections. Who knows, the change in the EU may come from an unexpected corner…
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Curtis Carpenter Oct 19, 2015

That seems a good and comprehensive summary of the current situation to me. But like so much commentary on the EU today, there's no discussion of HOW to "fix the EU before it is too late."

Isn't the "fix" going to require leadership? And where will that leadership come from? Germany's efforts to lead been met only with ridicule, and that itself may give other potential leaders cause for reflection.

Where are the constructive ideas for "the fix before its too late?"
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hari naidu Oct 19, 2015

You seem to be obsessed with the Limey's - Why? If they want to go, let them go and find out what life - as a non-EU member - really means in a globalized world.
China I see is stepping in with XI's state visit today. But will it resolve the blight of British Empire!
- Celt Darnell Oct 19, 2015
  
  @ hari naidu
  Why are you foreigners so obsessed with the British Empire? It disappeared before most of us were born.
  As for our discovering "what what life - as a non-EU member - really means in a globalized world," I suspect like the Canadians, Austalians, Icelanders and New Zealanders we'll find that it's very pleasant.
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Balazs Ambrus Oct 19, 2015

Well, yes. Merkel played a positive and enlightened role in the crisis.

It invited migrants to the 'modern' Germany, than asked 'old-fashioned' EU countries to pay the bill..
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Walter Gingery Oct 19, 2015

thanks for the summary.

It certainly seems that the tide of European integration has turned.
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Michael Public Oct 19, 2015

It was an ill conceived idea to start with. You cannot have monetary union with separate sovereign countries - it is classic case of 'the tragedy of the commons'. Imagine the same thing at a personal level - you and your neighbours share a bank account. There are 'rules' but rules can be bent, in the end, such an arrangement is bound to unravel.
- Marinus Huizer Oct 25, 2015
  
  Of course, do you believe that no one saw this coming?
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تفكك أوروبا

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