Kredit, wem Kredit gebührt

Früher, als die kommunistische Zentralplanung die chinesische Wirtschaft erstickte, waren Anlageninvestitionen das Mittel des Regimes zu wirtschaftlichem Fortschritt. Je mehr Tonnen Stahl produziert, Betonplatten gegossen und Gallonen Rohöl aus dem Boden gepumpt wurden, desto besser. Die konsumbasierte Wirtschaft, der der kapitalistische Westen anscheinend erlegen war, wurde als Papiertiger abgeschrieben.

Oberflächlich betrachtet, hat sich nicht viel verändert. China ist nach wie vor investitionswütig – 2005 machte der Bau von Fabriken und Infrastruktur 41 % des BIP und ungefähr die Hälfte des Wirtschaftswachstums aus. Auch sind die anhaltend hohen Anlageinvestitionen des Landes gerechtfertigt – Straßen, Wasserrohre, U-Bahnsysteme, Telekommunikationsnetze und Elektronikfabriken zu bauen ist das, was ein großes Land mit rasanter Modernisierung tun muss.

Doch hat die Führungsriege der Kommunistischen Partei beschlossen, dass Frisöre, Buchhalter, Karaoke-Hostessen, Fremdenführer und Filmregisseure im nächsten Jahrzehnt die neuen Säulen der Wirtschaftsleistung sein werden. Während sich das Investitionswachstum verlangsamt und die Exportmärkte ihre unvorhersehbaren Geschäftszyklen und protektionistische Launen ertragen, wird China immer mehr auf den Konsum angewiesen sein, um Arbeitsplätze und Einkommen zu schaffen – und im Dienstleistungssektor findet der meiste Konsum statt.

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