Uvěří Číňané úvěrům?

Za starých časů, kdy čínskou ekonomiku dusilo komunistické centrální plánování, byly měřítkem hospodářského pokroku investice do fixního majetku. Čím více se vyrobilo oceli, odlilo betonových panelů a vyčerpalo surové nafty, tím lépe. Ekonomika založená na spotřebě, jíž tehdy zjevně podlehl kapitalistický Západ, byla odepisována jakožto papírový tygr.

Navenek se toho příliš nezměnilo. Čína je i nadále posedlá investicemi – výstavba továren a infrastruktury představovala v loňském roce 41% HDP a přibližně polovinu hospodářského růstu. Přetrvávající vysoká míra investic do fixního majetku v této zemi má navíc svou logiku – stavba silnic, vodovodů, systémů podzemní dopravy, telekomunikačních sítí a továren na elektroniku je přesně tím, co musí obrovská a rychle se modernizující země dělat.

Vedení komunistické strany však rozhodlo, že v příštím desetiletí se stanou novým pilířem ekonomické výkonnosti kadeřníci, účetní, hostesky v karaoke barech, turističtí průvodci a filmoví režiséři. Zatímco se investiční růst zpomaluje a vývozní trhy zažívají nevyzpytatelné hospodářské cykly a protekcionistické nálady, Čína bude svou tvorbu pracovních míst a příjmy stále více opírat o spotřebu – právě v sektoru služeb je totiž spotřeba nejvyšší.

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