Creando la próxima crisis

WASHINGTON, DC – La opinión informada está marcadamente dividida respecto de cómo se desarrollarán los próximos 12 meses para la economía global. Quienes se concentran en los mercados emergentes destacan un crecimiento acelerado, con algunos pronósticos que proyectan un incremento del 5% en la producción mundial. Otros, preocupados por los problemas en Europa y Estados Unidos, siguen mostrándose más pesimistas, con proyecciones de crecimiento cercanas al 4% -y algunos incluso son proclives a pronosticar una posible recesión de “doble caída”.

Es un debate interesante, pero elude el panorama más general. En respuesta a la crisis de 2007-2009, los gobiernos en la mayoría de los países industrializados implementaron algunos de los rescates más generosos alguna vez vistos para grandes instituciones financieras. Por supuesto, no es políticamente correcto llamarlos rescates –el término preferido por los estrategas políticos es “respaldo de liquidez” o “protección sistémica”-. Pero representa esencialmente lo mismo: a la hora de la verdad, los gobiernos más poderosos del mundo (en los papeles, al menos) pospusieron una y otra vez las necesidades y deseos de la gente que les había prestado dinero a los grandes bancos.

En cada instancia, la lógica fue impecable. Por ejemplo, si Estados Unidos no hubiese ofrecido respaldo prácticamente incondicional al Citigroup en 2008 (durante la presidencia de George W. Bush) y nuevamente en 2009 (ya en la presidencia de Barack Obama), el resultante colapso financiero habría profundizado la recesión global y agravado las pérdidas de empleos en todo el mundo. De la misma manera, si la eurozona no hubiese intervenido –con la ayuda del Fondo Monetario Internacional- para proteger a Grecia y a sus acreedores en los últimos meses, habríamos enfrentado una mayor zozobra financiera en Europa y tal vez en otras partes.

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