制造下一场危机

华盛顿——

 关于未来12个月的世界经济走向,各路高手各执一词,莫衷一是。关注新兴市场的人士强调经济正在加速增长,其中一些人预测世界产出增长率可达5%。其他人士担忧欧洲和美国所面临的问题,仍旧保持悲观态度,预测经济增长率只有4%左右。更有甚者倾向于可能发生“二次探底”的经济衰退。

这些争论饶有兴味,但未能抓住主要矛盾。为了应对2007~2009年的危机,绝大多数工业化国家抛出了大手笔救助计划,其慷慨程度为各大金融机构所始料未及。当然,将其称为救助计划是个政治错误——政客喜欢用“流动性支持”或者“系统保护”之类的字眼。但不论称呼如何不同,本质是一样的:当事态紧急时,最强势的政府(至少在纸面上)也会一次又一次地屈从于各大银行债权人的要求和愿望。

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