Paul Lachine

Ecrire l’avenir

ADDIS ABABA – Quel avenir pour l’économie globale ? Les niveaux de vie vont-ils progresser partout dans le monde, puisque les pays pauvres d’aujourd’hui s’approprient directement les dernières technologies afin de rattraper leur retard sur les pays plus riches ? Ou la prospérité nous glissera-t-elle entre les doigts, entrainée par l’avidité et la corruption qui nous conduisent à épuiser nos ressources vitales et à dégrader l’environnement naturel dont dépend le bien-être humain ? L’humanité n’est confrontée à aucun autre défi majeur que celui d’assurer un monde de prospérité plutôt qu’un monde de ruines.

Tout comme un roman proposant deux fins possibles, le nôtre est une histoire qui reste à écrire dans ce nouveau siècle. Il n’y a rien d’inévitable en matière de propagation – ou de perte – de prospérité. Plus que tout (ou peut-être plus que nous ne serions prêts à l’admettre), l’avenir est une question de détermination, et non une simple prédiction.

En dépit de l’actuelle crise économique en Europe et aux Etats-Unis, le monde en développement a soutenu une croissance économique rapide. Selon le Fond Monétaire International, la perspective de croissance des économies avancées n’est que de 1,5% pour 2013, tandis que celle des pays en développement devrait atteindre 5,6%. Les perspectives concernant les économies émergeantes de l’Asie, désormais les chefs de file du monde, sont de l’ordre de 7,2%, tandis que celles, florissantes, de Afrique sub-saharienne devraient être de l’ordre de 5,7%.

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