Crear bonos vinculados con el crecimiento

Hace un año, en la Cumbre de las Américas, 34 Jefes de Estado o de Gobierno del hemisferio occidental acordaron fomentar la creación de bonos estatales vinculados con el crecimiento cuyos beneficios estuvieran vinculados al producto interior bruto (PIB), pero su desarrollo se ha estancado en la mayoría de los casos. Sólo hay sobre la mesa una propuesta importante, relacionada con dichos bonos, de la Argentina. Podríamos estar perdiendo una oportunidad única de fortalecer la infraestructura financiera del mundo y aumentar la eficiencia económica durante muchos años en el futuro.

Desde que publiqué, en 1993, mi libro Macro Markets (“Macromercados”), me he manifestado partidario de los bonos vinculados con el crecimiento. El PIB es el criterio más completo de que disponemos para calibrar el éxito de una economía. La forma más simple de bonos vinculados con el crecimiento sería una acción estatal a largo plazo a la que correspondiera un dividendo periódico, proporcional al PIB del país emisor.

Supongamos que el Gobierno de la Argentina emitiese bonos perpetuos a los que correspondiera un dividendo anual equivalente a la diez mil millonésima parte del PIB de la Argentina, pagadero en pesos. Como el PIB anual de la Argentina asciende ahora a unos 500.000 millones de pesos, a uno de esos bonos correspondería actualmente un dividendo de 50 pesos (unos 17 dólares o 13 euros) al año. El dividendo subiría o bajaría a medida que se revelara en el tiempo el éxito de la economía de la Argentina.

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