Vytvořme dluhopisy vázané na růst

Před rokem se na Summitu amerických kontinentů hlavy 34 států západní polokoule shodly, že podpoří vytvoření vládních dluhopisů vázaných k růstu, jejichž vyplácení bude vztaženo k hrubému domácímu produktu (HDP). Postup se ale z velké části zastavil. Na stole leží jediný významnější návrh ve vztahu k takovým dluhopisům, podaný Argentinou. Mezi prsty nám může proklouznout jedinečná příležitost, jak na mnoho let dopředu posílit světovou finanční infrastrukturu a zvýšit ekonomickou efektivitu.

Dluhopisy vázané na růst obhajuji už od své knihy Macro Markets z roku 1993. HDP je nejkomplexnější ukazatel úspěšnosti hospodářství, který máme. Nejjednodušší formou dluhopisů vázaných na růst by byl dlouhodobý státní cenný papír, z něhož by plynula pravidelná dividenda úměrná HDP emitenta.

Představme si, že by argentinská vláda vydala věčné dluhopisy, z nichž by se vyplácela roční dividenda ve výši jedné desetimiliardtiny argentinského HDP, splatná v pesos. Vzhledem k tomu, že roční HDP Argentiny se dnes pohybuje kolem 500 miliard pesos, každý z těchto dluhopisů by ročně vynesl dividendu 50 pesos (kolem 17 USD nebo 13 EUR). Dividenda by se zvyšovala nebo snižovala podle toho, jak by se vyvíjela úspěšnost argentinského hospodářství.

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