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Economics

后疫情时代的经济领导力将发端于美国

Jun 23, 2020 Mohamed A. El-Erian

发自拉古纳海滩—全球经济在未来将如何走向？就目前而言，最可能的答案是增长放缓，不平等加剧，市场扭曲和金融风险上升。但这种结果并非必然，通过及时修改政策范式，政策制定者可以为建立一个更具活力，包容性和弹性的经济奠定基础。

新型冠状病毒危机在2020年第二季度造成的经济损失甚至比预期更为严重：经济活动骤减，不平等加剧，不断高涨的金融市场与经济现实之间更加脱节。同时由于疫苗尚未问世，因此我们依然极为难以确定将如何摆脱疫情——以及相关经济危机。

各大全球领先经济机构——国际货币基金组织，经济合作与发展组织和世界银行——目前都警告说全球经济可能要花费至少两年时间才能抚平新型冠状病毒造成的损失。倘若各主要经济体都遭遇更多轮次的感染，那么复苏就将耗时更长。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Per Kurowski Jun 25, 2020

The risk weighted bank capital requirements are based on perceived expected credit risk.
The AAA rated securities 2008 crisis, evidenced sufficiently that the real dangers are in misperceived credit risk.
COVID-19 should evidence sufficiently that the unexpected is more dangerous.
http://subprimeregulations.blogspot.com/2019/03/my-letter-to-financial-stability-board.html
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George Ramos Jun 25, 2020

This is the type of article I would expect from an Obama-Era appointee. America's job as the world financial hub & reserve currency is STABILIZATION OF SAID CURRENCY, that is it!
It's not "Give other countries sweetheart trade deals that hollow out America" or "pump out non-performing loans to bankrupt countries" That is the very same "globalist hegemony" mindset that bankrupted the EU and is the very plague that deems to rip that union apart! I imagine "Mohammad" has only America's BEST INTEREST at heart when he claims that America should further impose itself on the global markets, trade at losses, and finance bankrupt nations, because that can only end in 1 way. (hint, it isn't good for America)
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Paul Daley Jun 25, 2020

There is a yawning gap between asset prices and income flows throughout the world but there are equally large budget deficits that also must be addressed. That combination strongly suggests that governments seek to close the gap between asset prices and income flows with taxes as well as monetary policy adjustments. There are lots of ways to do this; e.g., eliminating income tax deductions for interest payments, or imputing income to net worth and taxing that. Of course, there will naturally be arguments against raising taxes during a recession, but taxes that fall on the unearned income from assets inflated by overly accomodative monetary policy are probably the least damaging of any that could be applied.
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Madurai Padmanabhan Jun 25, 2020

In most arenas of international integration, technology offers revised mechanisms that can change the very nature of what the author terms leadership. Especially in currency management. The power stranglehold under the guise of “need for stability” of the reserve currency is tethering the freedom of developing countries.
A independent exchange platform, blockchain enabled could free global markets from the tyranny of politically motivated manipulations & containment.
Stewardship and not leadership is the crying need & this could be technologically managed without individual nations governing interests.
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Robert REYNOLDS Jun 25, 2020

This article is headlined "Post-Pandemic Economic Leadership Begins in America".
Well, we can simply forget any sort of meaningful or positive leadership to come from the American Administration in Washington, at least until January next year. In the event that the present incumbent of the White House is returned to office in November then we can forget it altogether. Even if the "very stable genius" is removed from office in November, I am not optimistic that the alternative will be able to offer very much in terms of leadership either. It is all very depressing.
- George Ramos Jun 25, 2020
  
  Perhaps a trip to Epstein's "Island of Enlightenment" could clear the heads of your "preferred" candidates and reignite the globalist utopia you seek? Just a few more corrupt globalist and maybe a dozen or two similar "retreats" as rewards for towing the global cabal control chain, and everything will be "right as rain"!
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后疫情时代的经济领导力将发端于美国

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