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发自剑桥——未来几个月将在很大程度上揭示即将到来的全球复苏态势。尽管股市一片兴旺，但围绕新型冠状病毒的不确定性依旧弥漫于各处。因此无论疫情如何发展，世界各国迄今为止与病毒的斗争都可能会在很长一段时间内影响其经济增长，就业和政治。
让我们先从潜在的好消息说起。在乐观情境下，各监管机构将在今年年底之前批准至少两款第一代新型冠状病毒疫苗。在政府的特殊监管政策和财政支持下这些疫苗甚至在人体临床试验结束之前就已开始投产。假设它们真的有效，那么到2020年底各生物技术企业将拥有约2亿剂库存并有望继续生产数十亿剂。疫苗的分发将是一项艰巨的任务，因为要花很大力气让公众确信这些特批疫苗是安全的。
如果一切顺利，富裕国家民众将在2021年底之前接种该疫苗，同时几乎所有中国人应该也已经接种了疫苗。在此之后几年中世界上大部分人口——包括生活在新兴经济体和发展中经济体里的人们——都能参加免疫。
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