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Una estrategia pandémica tan global como el COVID-19

Mar 19, 2020 Erik Berglöf

LONDRES – El coronavirus COVID-19 está alterando prácticamente cada aspecto de la vida en todo el mundo. Naturalmente, los gobiernos están trabajando para proteger primero a sus propias poblaciones, cerrando inclusive sus fronteras e imponiendo cuarentenas y confinamientos. Pero, al hacerlo, muchas veces no logran ver el panorama más amplio. Ese error de criterio esencial, si no es corregido, volverá a atormentarnos a todos.

El sufrimiento que deja en su estela el COVID-19 –desde muerte, sistemas inmunológicos dañados y economías debilitadas- será aún peor para quienes sean menos capaces de defenderse, en nuestras comunidades locales y globalmente. Sin embargo, es probable que esta ola de infecciones sea apenas la primera. En tanto el COVID-19 llegue a países con instituciones frágiles y sistemas de salud débiles, cantidades enormes de personas podrían morir en el corto plazo, inclusive muchos de los millones de personas vulnerables que viven en campos de refugiados anárquicos y con pocos recursos. Es más, el virus podría volverse endémico.

Según Jeremy Farrar del Wellcome Trust, Wuhan, China –donde surgió el virus por primera vez, pero donde hoy las muertes y las nuevas infecciones lentamente están disminuyendo- está en la semana 18-20 de una epidemia de 20-22 semanas. El norte de Italia hoy podría estar en la semana 11-13 y el Reino Unido está en la semana 8-9. Los países vulnerables de África y Centroamérica y Sudamérica, sin embargo, están en la semana 1-5 –el comienzo de su ciclo epidémico.

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j. von Hettlingen Mar 22, 2020

Erik Berglöf outlines a strategy for the G20 leaders, who attend a “virtual” summit the coming week held by Saudi Arabia, which is this year’s chair of the G20 summit in November. The emergency meeting could not come sooner, as a global response is required to a full-blown pandemic that is threatening both the global economy and millions of lives. Since global health is a collective public good, any threat to it requires multilateral cooperation.
As the outbreak of the coronavirus spreads, governments’ immediate response is “to protect their own populations first, including by closing their borders and imposing quarantines and lockdowns.” But the author is sceptical of such measures, saying national governments “are often failing to see the bigger picture. That critical error of judgment, if not corrected, will come back to haunt us all,” because we still do not know much about the behaviour of this novel virus.
Looking at the COVID-19 development in China and across Europe, there is fear that the virus will hit “countries with fragile institutions and weak health systems” even harder. “Huge numbers of people could die in the short term, including many of the millions of vulnerable people living in unruly and under-resourced refugee camps.” It is hence imperative that health-care systems in weak and vulnerable countries be shored up to prevent a huge increase of cases, and help them cope with future waves of similar viruses.
While China has flattened the curve for the virus, it is still too early to tell whether it is the best bet to slow the spread. The author says the G20 “should take the lead in galvanizing action, as it did after the 2008 global financial crisis. At its 2009 summit in London, the G20 coalesced around a joint action plan that engaged key stakeholders and ensured that the global system continued to operate.” It remains to be seen whether Saudi Arabia will be able to address the pandemic.
Riyadh is taking more drastic steps to contain the COVID-19 spread within the kingdom, suspending work in the private sector – except for health and food services; the Umrah pilgrimage; international flights; closing schools and most public establishments. Mosques are no longer open for the customary five daily prayers or Friday congregations, following the death of at least 171 coronavirus patients. But prayers continue at the two mosques in Mecca and Medina, the holiest places in Islam.
The world is watching closely how Saudi Arabia is going to present a coordinated set of policies to protect people and safeguard the global economy.
The summit’s announcement by Saudi Arabia, the first Arab nation to hold the G20 presidency, came amid criticism that the G20 was slow to address the pandemic. The G20 financial chiefs voiced real fear last month at a summit in Riyadh about the economic shock waves from the spread of the deadly virus. Since then, global stock and oil markets have slumped amid heightened concerns over the worsening outbreak. Economists dread that the virus-wracked world economy will likely plunge into recession.
The US, the EU and Britain are spearheading a multi-billion-dollar stimulus package to address the economic havoc unleashed by the coronavirus. Yet critics doubt whether this “virtual” summit would be enough. Unlike the 2008 G20 summit and its follow-up in 2009, which were led by highly competent leaders, critics doubt whether the Saudis would be able to resolve the global health crisis, other than hosting a big event that would improve their image.
Saudi Arabia itself is bracing for an economic slump after a partial shutdown of daily life, and a lockdown of the eastern Qatif region - home to around 500,000 (mostly Shia) people - in a bid to contain the virus.
The top crude exporter also faces plummeting oil prices, which slipped below $30 a barrel this week for the first time in four years, apart from agging demand and a price war with Russia.
Only nternational coordination can prevent a global disaster. People and businesses around the world are deeply concerned – if not outright panicked – and need reassurance. Let's hope that world leaders will put aside petty nationalism for the sake of the global common good.
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Michael Public Mar 20, 2020

Luckily there is tons of research on all the previous corona virus pandemics. /sarcasm font off

Insistence that only proven things will work is what is causing this catastrophe. Take masks, for example - there is no peer reviewed proven evidence that broad usage of masks will stop THIS pandemic - but South Korea drastically slowed the growth while having a culture of mask usage among the general population. Hence we should do what they did, because that is best evidence we have. Maybe the masks did nothing, but the that is the insignificant risk.
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