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战胜新型冠状病毒和经济两大疫情

Mar 23, 2020 Shang-Jin Wei

发自纽约—我曾在今年一月的时候预测2019年新型冠状病毒在中国的传播将在2月的第二或第三周到达拐点。事实上自2月22日以来该国的重症和危重症数量一路下降，甚至近几日都未出现除国外输入病例以外的新增病例。但不幸的是中国境外的新感染正迅速增加，并可能为公共卫生和全球经济带来灾难性后果。

面对此次疫病大流行，各国政策制定者们可以从中国以及其他首当其冲遭受冲击的国家身上吸取一些有益的教训。虽然这些教训对于那些尚未遭遇疫情大规模暴发的国家尤为有用，但最重要的一点则是它们必须迅速行动起来。

首先政府和公共卫生当局必须在疫情大爆发前加大准备力度，因为在新型冠状病毒来袭时对检测试剂盒、口罩、酒精湿巾、防护服，医院病床和生命维持仪器的需求将会激增。在这方面欧美都没有妥善利用手里的六周提前准备时间；其他国家也应当立刻做好准备。

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Will the Coronavirus Cause a Major Growth Slowdown in China?
Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Economics 1

Will the Coronavirus Cause a Major Growth Slowdown in China?

Shang-Jin Wei explains why the impact of the outbreak on Chinese and world GDP is likely to be less damaging than many fear.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 7 Comments on this article

Michael Public Mar 23, 2020

Well, tariffs is a two edged sword. There are local industries who exist but cannot compete with tariff free goods - vehicles for example. They are large employers.
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Michael Public Mar 23, 2020

Well, around here - virtually everything non-perishable comes from China. Even if what you say is true most countries are seeing a resurgence of beggar thy neighbor style leaders who would rather see themselves reduced to king of the trash heap than lose a little ground to their enemies.
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Michael Public Mar 23, 2020

You assume that we will stop the growth in the next couple days. At the current growth if there is going to be infrastructure put in place in needs to happen in four weeks - which is about as unrealistic as putting a man on Mars in the same time period.
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Michael Public Mar 23, 2020

Went to the shops today, wearing surgical gloves, a mask made from a teashirt and dark glasses. Of the hundred people I saw, two others were wearing a mask/gloves. Some were pointing and joking. Some visibly jumped when they saw me like I was a freak. And our country went from 270 to 400 cases since yesterday. Add in the two week lag until symptoms show and that could be 2000 cases or more. Bottom line, is that populations of non-China countries are just not used to taking their governments that seriously. With that in mind, it is going to grow here and everywhere else (except perhaps a few select Asian countries) to the point where every person has had it, either without symptoms or with it. Geometric growth trends indicate that that point is about maybe 8 weeks from now - give or take a couple weeks.
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Michael Public Mar 23, 2020

Hospital beds may not be the constraint. It is normal practice that each ICU bed have its own dedicated trained nurse. Sure you can give two patients to a nurse - but where does it stop - three? five? seven? ten?
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Godfree Roberts Mar 23, 2020

The author clearly suffers from undiagnosed rationality. Here's how a real country prepares for pandemics:

A. Fire the entire US Pandemic Response Team on May, 7, 2018 (Washington Post, March 13, 2020).

B. Eliminated a key American public health positions in Beijing intended to help detect disease outbreaks in China last July. (Reuters, Marisa Taylor March 23, 2020)

C. Refuse to share details about Patient Zero or the locations of the first confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the USA (ongoing)

D. Blame China, despite the fact that:

1. According to Japanese and Taiwanese TV and Chinese social media, it is now virtually certain that COVID-19 was brought to Wuhan by American troops taking part in the city’s World Military Games last Oct. 18-27.

2. The 300-strong US contingent stayed 300 meters from the Huanan Seafood Market where China’s outbreak began (see map below) at the Wuhan Oriental Hotel.

3. Five of the US troops developed a fever on Oct. 25, were taken to an infectious-diseases hospital for treatment and diagnosed with what we now call Covid-19.

4. 42 employees of the Oriental Hotel were diagnosed with COVID-19, becoming the first cluster in Wuhan.

5. At the time only 7 people from the market had been thus diagnosed (and treated before the hotel staff).

6. All 7 had contact with the 42 from the hotel. From this source, the virus spread to the rest of China.

7. The American Military Games team trained at a location near Fort Detrick, the military’s viral lab closed down by the CDC in July for various deficiencies.

8. The big question now is whether the transmission was planned, or accidental.

9. A few days ago, Mike Pompeo phoned Yang Jiechi, Chinese State Councillor for Foreign Affairs. Pompeo’s counterpart is actually Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Yang is Wang’s boss, so Pompeo wanted to talk about something urgent and important.

10. Pompeo wanted the Chinese not to publicize what they had found.

11. Yang’s reply: “We await your solemn explanation, especially about Patient Zero.”

China’s leaders have long suspected US military involvement in the Wuhan outbreak but were determined to stop the disease before pursuing the Americans for an honest accounting.
- Michael Public Mar 23, 2020
  
  They announced a few days ago that the virus bears no laboratory alteration fingerprints. But keep watching Alex Jones, eventually he will be right, if only through sheer quantity of conspiracy theories.
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