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Politics

استراتيجية عالمية للخروج من أزمة كوفيد-19

Apr 9, 2020 Ngaire Woods and Rajaie Batniji

أكسفورد ــ قد يتحول العالم الخارج من وباء فيروس كورونا إلى مجموعة متحاربة من الدول التي صارت أكثر انغلاقا وميلا للنزعة القومية من ذي قبل. وبدون تعاون سريع وفعال، قد لا يخرج العالم من هذه الأزمة بسلام على الإطلاق.

لو تأملنا فيما يجري في الوقت الحالي على الأقل، لأبصرنا هيمنة ردود الفعل المتسمة بالقومية المفرطة. فبالإضافة إلى حظر التجول والإغلاق وحوادث الاستيلاء والمصادرة، تقوم الحكومات بإغلاق الحدود واستخدام خطاب الحرب لحشد شعوبها. كما تعطلت سلاسل الإمداد والتجارة العالمية ليس بسبب الإغلاقات فقط، بل لتصارع الدول الغنية على الإمدادت أيضا.

لكن قريبا سيتحتم على الحكومات إعادة تشغيل الاقتصاد العالمي، مما سيتطلب تعاونا دوليا في مناح رئيسة عدة.

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Ngaire Woods

Writing for PS since 2013
50 Commentaries

Ngaire Woods is Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.

Rajaie Batniji

Writing for PS since 2020
1 Commentary

Rajaie Batniji is co-founder of Collective Health.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

Per Kurowski Apr 12, 2020

If the percentage of those under 40 years of age that die of all causes, is higher than the percentage rate of that same age group that die from coronavirus/COVID19, how can it make any sense to subject them to a quarantine and its economic consequences? http://perkurowski.blogspot.com/2020/03/financial-escape-valves-in-times-of.html
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Robert Wolff Apr 12, 2020

Nice support for Technocracy, as promoted by Marx. It is not a simple reverence for Marxian Philosophy that is revered by China, but that fact that his philosophy has led to the superiority of the Chinese Nation over the West.

The Truth is that Marx's concept of Nationalistic Superiority (Production as superior to Capitalism) has proven to be CORRECT.

The West and the US are waning, due to the ideal of Capitalist Narcissism. The most wealthy in the US, i.e. the most wealthy, are now the ones investing their Capital in cheap Chinese Labor, and selling inexpensive goods and services back into the US economy that is now supported by US Government Debt to subsidize the failing profits of the US Domestic Economy.

No wonder the past CEO of Apple (Steve Jobs) told Obama, when asked, "When will Apple repatriate its manufacturing to America?", Steve said, "Never".

Capitalism now favors China, and its "New" Silk Road initiative, and if the West wants to survive it must reduce worker wages and accept the devaluation of the Dollar and the devaluation of the American Worker, as regards its value and compensation. Africa is now subsidized by Chinese industry, and dependent on China's success versus the success of the West.

As JFK said, "We're fckd again!".
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Paul Daley Apr 10, 2020

Actually, the first rule of any combat is to know your enemy. In the case of an epidemics, that means identifying peculiarities of the disease that are relevant to the response, in particular, who are most vulnerable. In the case of covid-19, the most vulnerable are the aged and infirm.
In Italy, the average age at death of a coronavirus victim was 79.5, only three years less than the nation's average life span. In the United States, according to CDC's latest statistics, one-third of those hospitalized were 85 or over. Sixty percent were older than 75 and the average age of the hospitalized population was 77. Moreover, the vast majority of the hospitalized population in the United States and of deaths in Italy occurred among patients who had one, two or three serious underlying conditions. In short, covid-19 is by and large killing only those who were in any case on the verge of death. Three years from now we may be barely able to detect its effects, since its victims would have died in any case in subsequent years.

What does that profile of victims suggest for strategy? Basically, it suggests a relatively modest program. The search for effective tests and vaccines can go forward; the more we know about this virus, the more capable will we be dealing with it or its relatives in the future. We should also try to isolate the vulnerable and comfort the dying. But an expenditure of trillions of dollars on efforts whose impact will be undetectable three years from now is not just wasteful, it's unforgivable. There are simply many problems in the world. Committing ourselves to do "whatever is necessary" in regard to each and every one is just idiocy.

Fortunately, there is a remedy for this problem. It's called budgeting - weighing the costs of acting or not acting in one area against the costs of acting or not acting in all the other areas of potential action. The media may spotlight one problem, but the general public, and the governments that represent them, must keep all issues in view. Bjorn Lomborg regularly makes this point in regard to global warming. The same prudent advice should be applied to covid-19.
- Dallas Weaver, Ph.D. Apr 16, 2020
  
  As a geezer, I note that the ruling political class is also highly populated by geezers and they will not do a cost/benefit type analyst that would show that most of the closures that increase their power are huge economic losers. Requiring masks by the citizens on all contacts apparently has approximately $3,000 in benefits (lower health care costs) per mask and is a bit of a no-brainer. However, it goes against the interest of the political class with no real power increase and would cover up their faces and harm their brand.
  
  It is not a shortage issue as masks can be reused for citizens as a defense against this virus by just heating in an oven to greater than 140ºF (60ºC) for 30 minutes. General health workers also must consider other pathogens infecting the masks that are more resistant to heating and require stronger disinfection methods.
  
  Assuming that the rulers will continue to make the decisions based upon politics and their self-interest, we need to protect ourselves as citizens (which protects others as an unintended consequence) making your own personal protective equipment (PPE) and using it for self-protection.
  
  https://www.dropbox.com/s/lvmhxl4nyybprsi/Protection%20in%20the%20Covid-19%20era%20V4.pdf?dl=0
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Laurie McGinness Apr 9, 2020

Surveillance is already here. Apple/Google/Facebook etc. So why not use it to save lives?
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Remi Chukwudi Okeke Apr 9, 2020

"China, for example, is now donating ventilators to the United States". Either called contradictory cooperation or cooperative contradiction, the world needs it at this time. These deadly pathogens do not care about nationalities when they want to kill. They neither know China, Africa nor America. They basically kill. Let us cooperate, in current strategies, and exit strategy.
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stephan Edwards Apr 9, 2020

I'll take the disease over Chinese style surveillance, And I am both near sixty & essential in a line of work that deals with a lot of people every day. If anyone believes that Government & law enforcement in the western democracies wouldn't use this however they choose (No matter party or claims) they are much more ......optimistic? about the kind of personalities that seek power then I am.
- Michael Public Apr 10, 2020
  
  How does what Snowden revealed differ from what they have in China? The surveillance is the same, only what is permissible to do with it differs from China.
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استراتيجية عالمية للخروج من أزمة كوفيد-19

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