tchan1_Yuichiro Chino_GettyImages_stock market Yuichiro Chino/Getty Images

债务危机为时尚早

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发自纽约—随着国家，企业和家庭纷纷受到新型冠状病毒疫情的经济冲击，许多市场观察家都发出了全球杠杆率迅速上升的警报。他们的理由相当充分：过往数年形成的趋势现已出现加速，今年这三类借款人的债务相对GDP的比率预计将激增14％，达到创纪录的265％。但尽管这增加了（尤其是企业的）破产和违约风险，但标普全球评级认为，近期依然不太可能爆发债务危机。

考虑到更高的杠杆率和充满挑战的运营环境，标普下调了全球大约1/5企业和主权债务发行人的信用评级，尤其是那些投机级以及受新冠疫情经济影响最大的借款人。对于企业借款人来说，如果现金流和收益无法在特别财政刺激措施撤销之前恢复到疫情前趋势水平，破产风险就可能会增加。

在我们看来，假设能维持宽松的融资条件，保持更长时间的较低水平利率并调整支出和借贷行为，世界可能会经历一场渐进但较为波折的经济复苏。此外如果能在2021年中期广泛使用新冠疫苗，随着政府缩减刺激计划，企业缓慢修复资产负债表以及家庭支出更加保守，全球杠杆水平将在2023年左右趋于平稳。

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