统计伊拉克的伤亡情况

战争时期,对平民伤亡数据的统计总是面临着重重困难。利用自己的专长对平民百姓的死亡率和发病率进行严谨、可信统计的人口统计学家和流行病学家少之又少。有些时候,职业自由的匮乏使那些最熟悉情况的人无法将自己的专长用于可能造成政治危害的目的¾举例来讲,很多分析人士需要依赖卷入冲突的政府才能维持自己的生计。

对伤亡数据的统计还面临着其他挑战。将冲突与其他干扰(比如经济制裁)的影响截然分开几乎是不可能的。不仅如此,可靠估算所需的高质量人口数据也许因其“敏感性”而难以获取,也许根本就没有做过这方面的统计(有时在发展中国家会发生这种情况),也可能随着难民的流动这些数据已经失效。结果是估计的不确定性高得令人无法接受,使这些数据失去了真正的实用价值。

让我们来看看在统计伊拉克战争的伤亡人数统计时所使用的不同方法。伊拉克死亡调查组织试图按照媒体的报导来计算出战争中的死亡人数。如果不存在重复计算、如果媒体对暴力事件的报导准确无误,那么他们所得出的只能是最低数额,因为媒体的报导可能并不完整。

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