John Overmyer

Respuestas a la crisis económica del primer mundo

NEWPORT BEACH – Imagínese por un momento que usted es el principal responsable político de una exitosa economía de mercado emergente. Desde su posición, observa con legítima preocupación (y una mezcla de incredulidad y rabia) cómo se extiende la crisis de deuda que paraliza a Europa, a la par que los Estados Unidos, por culpa del estado disfuncional de su política, se ven imposibilitados de revivir su economía moribunda. Puesto usted a elegir: ¿confiaría en que la extraordinaria resistencia interna de su país le baste para contrarrestar los vientos de deflación que soplan del primer mundo? ¿O preferiría ir sobre seguro y aumentar las reservas de su país, por si acaso?

Varias de estas economías emergentes se encuentran ante el mismo dilema, y la decisión que tomen tendrá amplias repercusiones más allá de sus fronteras. De hecho, esto también es una señal del panorama cada vez más incierto al que se enfrenta la economía global.

La existencia misma de este dilema es, de por sí, novedosa y digna de destacarse. Bien podríamos añadirla a la lista de acontecimientos otrora inimaginables que en los últimos tiempos hemos visto desfilar ante nuestros ojos, en una lista que incluye (nada más en las últimas semanas): la pérdida de la sacrosanta calificación AAA de los títulos de deuda de los Estados Unidos; los devaneos políticos en ese país con la posibilidad de caer en una cesación de pagos; una inquietud creciente sobre la perspectiva de reestructuraciones de deuda en varias economías periféricas de Europa, junto con rumores de una posible ruptura de la eurozona; y las drásticas medidas tomadas por Suiza para reducir (sí, reducir) su condición de refugio.

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