John Overmyer

抵御西方传染病

纽波特海滩——想象一下,你是某新兴市场国家的主要决策者。自然地,你关注着欧洲愈演愈烈的债务危机,也担心美国政策失当让其无法提振萎靡的经济,心中既有几分震惊,也带着几分愤怒。你会因本国令人瞩目的自力更生能力和成功抵挡了席卷西方的通缩风暴而踌躇满志吗?还是会继续小心行事,增加本国的预防性储备?

这就是目前不少新兴市场经济体所面临的问题,这一问题的影响范围远远超过了国家层面。事实上,这一问题也是令人越来越担心的全球经济前景的写照。

我们正面临如此问题,这一事实既令人瞩目,又令人不可思议。你可以把它加入到曾经不可想象、但最近被我们亲眼目睹的事件的名单中去。这一名单包括(就拿过去几周来说):美国失去了宝贵的AAA信用评级、美国在债务违约问题上的政治闹剧、与日俱增的对欧洲外围国家债务重组的担忧以及欧元区可能分崩离析的传闻、以及瑞士大踏步地削弱(对,就是削弱)自己安全港地位。

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