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colleagues working finance Sirinarth Mekvorawuth/EyeEm/Getty Images

央行官员的财政约束

坎布里奇—问问全世界大部分央行官员,他们有什么计划应对下一场常规规模的衰退,你会诧异于如此多的官员(至少是在发达经统体)说出“财政政策”。未来两年发生衰退的几率很高——比如,美国大约在40%——认为光靠财政政策就能力挽狂澜的货币决策者将会被现实狠抽耳光。

是的,在大部分发达经济体政策利率接近于零(在增长迅速的美国也只是略高于2%),货币政策很难在不进行大量创新的情况下还能有所作为。最好的想法是建立一个负利率政策能够更充分而有效地运用的环境。

技术官僚央行和控制着支出和税收政策、且政治波动很高的立法机关之间,存在着巨大的机构差异。不要忘了,典型的发达经济体衰退只维持一年左右,而财政政策哪怕是在最佳环境中,也至少需要几个月时间才能落实。

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