普京战争的代价

Sep 3, 2018 Anders Åslund

斯德哥尔摩——战争将要付出昂贵的代价，俄罗斯人民现在正在感受到这一点。克里姆林正在东乌克兰和叙利亚地区进行军事冒险，尽管这些冲突规模有限，但人们不禁怀疑这个国家是否真正有能力承担。

身为世界第11大经济体，俄罗斯在短期内可以支撑得住。但长远来看结果却可能不容乐观。据权威的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所数据显示，从2008到2016年，俄罗斯的军费开支已经从占国内生产总值的3.3%（与美国当前水平大致相当）增长到约占其国内生产总值的5.3%。

俄罗斯政府自己的财政统计数据显示——俄财政数据现在仍令人惊讶地对外开放——其在被占领土克里米亚每年需要耗费的民政支出大约达到20亿美元。虽然找不到俄罗斯在东克里米亚的公开数据，但可以靠谱地假设那里的成本也大体相同。因此俄罗斯需要花费每年40亿美元——约占其国内生产总值的0.3%——来支撑这两项行动。

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B Wilds Sep 9, 2018

Many people especially Americans don't really know very much about Russia or the Russian people and most of what they have been told has been filtered through a national security apparatus so entrenched in a cold war mindset they appear paranoid. It is clear the warmongering faction residing within Washington has declared Russia a major threat and sparked massive media coverage to convince us it is true.

The myth of Russia's strength has been amplified by journalists seeking to routinely curry favor with government sources and others by falsely hyping the official point of view. The fact is Russia's economy is rather small and while over the years they produce and export a lot of weapons their military is not well funded. More on Russia today in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2018/09/russia-today-country-not-television.html
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Carl Buzawa Sep 9, 2018

While the article is quite accurate.

It is missing something, Putin’s perspective. My suspicion is that he tends to still be trapped in a Cold War mentality, where his side clearly lost, a fact that seems to have effected him personally, watching the countries of Eastern Europe, where he was a senior KGB Colonel rejecting not just the Soviet Union, but Russia itself.. His aggressive posture could be aimed at Re asserting, in some manner his own personal prestige, “Look I am still virile and important on the world stage , not the aging head of an economically and demographically failing state run rather inefficiently by kleptocrats and my siloviki henchmen."

Having said this, give Putin his due. Although totally amoral, and very little thought given to adverse impact to Russia’s long term outcomes, tactically he has been a genius, reasserting Russian prestige in the Middle East, diverting public discontent into jingoistic patriotism following exploits in Syria and in the Crimea.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 3, 2018

According to Anders Åslund, military adventures are expensive. Even Russia, the world’s 11th largest economy, feels the strain. But it does not prevent Putin from working to convince the world that Russia’s military power is omnipotent. While the focus is on military spending, the Kremlin has concealed the real costs in terms of blood and treasure. That statistics show surprisingly low casualties despite engagements in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Syria has to do with the deployment of mercenaries or “little green men” – masked soldiers in unmarked green army uniforms and carrying modern Russian weapons.
The author says, momentarily the expenditure is still manageable, if the “government’s own fiscal statistics” are anything to go by. But sooner or later the “mounting costs will have serious political consequences.” Putin’s approval rating soared to record-high in 2014 thanks to the extravagant Sochi Winter Games and his annexation of Crimea. But his culpability in the destruction of Ukraine and Syria, as well as the human, economic and diplomatic cost that his geopolitical ambitions have imposed on Russia itself will come back to haunt him one day.
In May, the Kremlin admitted cutting its military spending in 2017, which represented the first dip since 1998. Budget deficits had exhausted the rainy day Reserve Fund, which ceased to exist as of January 1. Dwindling currency reserves. soaring capital flight, hostile investment climate for foreigners, rampant corruption and over-reliance on fossil fuel exports all show that Russia’s economy is on a shaky ground. It was struggling even before Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, and its situation had worsened severely ever since.
Sanctions bite, and many Russians have been feeling the squeeze since 2014 as a result of Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. In April, additional US-sanctions have been imposed in response to Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. In August the US announced a round of new sanctions against Russia over the March poisoning of a former Russian agent and his daughter in the UK. The Helsinki summit between Trump and Putin has led to “a bipartisan congressional coalition, that will soon approve even more severe sanctions, most likely hitting Russian sovereign debt and state-owned financial institutions. The mere threat of more US sanctions has already roiled the Russian market.”
In recent weeks tens of thousands took to the street across Russia to protest against the pension reform, raising the retirement age for women from 55 to 63, and for men from 60 to 65. But Russian men on average only live to 67. Under the new system a huge number of them would not survive to collect their pension. Some blamed foreign policy and sanctions for the lack of cash in the pension pot.
One of the axioms of geopolitics is that a country can project power only as far as its economic might carries. The US is by far the world’s largest economy, and has been the dominant force politically and militarily for the past decades. With its double-digit growth, China is on its way to achieve superpower status. Putin should take note, as he seeks to reassert Russia’s clout on the global stage. It is unclear whether the country will ever be a high-flier of the developing world any time soon again. With the exception of China and India, the other emerging economies – Brazil, Russia and South Africa –within BRICS grapple with sluggish growth.
Due to asset seizures in Crimea and Donbas, eight lawsuits have been brought against Russia at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. These illegal confiscations “have also been costly,” as the claimants are seeking compensation in billions of dollars from Moscow. In one case, Gazprom refused to pay, and the Ukrainian state-owned energy giant, Naftogaz “has responded by going after its assets abroad. Gazprom’s disregard for a commercial arbitration verdict could prove costly indeed.” Now Putin has the Sword of Damocles hanging over his head.
- Michael Public Sep 6, 2018
  
  I don't understand why you paraphrase the article. All that time spent for no benefit to anyone.
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