从直升机上撒钱的时机到了?

华盛顿——《经济学家》杂志最近询问货币政策决策者,“你们是不是没有弹药了?”斯蒂芬·罗奇形容包括日本、欧洲和瑞典央行在内的各大央行推行负实际利率(某些情况下,甚至是负名义利率)之举为“徒劳无功”,仅仅是“为下一次危机铺平了道路”。而且,在2月召开的20国集团财长会议上,据报道英格兰银行行长马克·卡尼将上述政策称之为“终极零和游戏。”这些一直承担着2008年后维持弱复苏任务的主要发达经济体央行是否真的已经别无选择?

看上去确实如此。央行的资产负债表已经膨胀,而政策利率已经达到“接近零”的下限目标。看似廉价的水在四处流淌,但马儿却不肯喝。因为看不到通胀迹象,而且经济增长依然温和而脆弱,很多人预计全球经济将长期增长缓慢,有些人甚至担心全球衰退将再次爆发。

但决策者们还有一个方案:那就是转向“纯粹的”财政政策,即通过印钞来直接推动政府支出——这就是所谓“从直升机上撒钱战术。”新增货币将绕过金融和企业部门,直接流向最缺水的马:即中低收入消费者。这笔钱可以通过投资就业机会创造和提高生产率的基础设施直接为他们所用。通过为最需要的人提供购买力,公共支出的直接货币融资还将有助于让不平等快速上升的经济体更加包容。

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